−10%−5%0+5%+10%−3.9%−1×+3.9%+1×Trump announces a two-week ceasefire with IranPCE prices for February 2026: +0.4% on the month, core +0.4%Producer prices for March 2026: +0.5% on the monthJobless claims for the week to Apr 11, 2026: 207,000 (-12k)Retail sales for March 2026: +1.9% on the monthJobless claims for the week to Apr 18, 2026: 214,000 (+7k)FOMC: holdGDP for 2026 Q1: 2.0% a yearJobless claims for the week to May 2, 2026: 200,000 (+11k)Jobs report for April 2026: +99k, unemployment 4.3%CPI release for April 2026: +0.6% on the month, core +0.4%Producer prices for April 2026: +1.6% on the monthJobless claims for the week to May 16, 2026: 209,000 (-2k)