−5%0+5%−3.1%−1×+3.1%+1×Trump announces reciprocal tariffs and a 10% baseline tariffJobless claims for the week to Mar 29, 2025: 219,000 (-5k)Trump announces a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffsCPI release for March 2025: -0.1% on the month, core +0.1%Retail sales for March 2025: +1.7% on the monthJobless claims for the week to Apr 12, 2025: 215,000 (-8k)