−20%−10%0+10%−2.7%−1×+2.7%+1×Retail sales for October 2025: -0.1% on the monthCPI release for November 2025: +0.2% over 2 months, core +0.2%GDP for 2025 Q3: 4.3% a yearJobless claims for the week to Dec 20, 2025: 214,000 (-10k)Jobless claims for the week to Dec 27, 2025: 199,000 (-15k)Jobless claims for the week to Jan 3, 2026: 208,000 (+9k)Jobs report for December 2025: -26k, unemployment 4.4%CPI release for December 2025: +0.3% on the month, core +0.2%Retail sales for November 2025: +0.4% on the monthPCE prices for November 2025: +0.2% on the month, core +0.2%FOMC: holdJobless claims for the week to Jan 24, 2026: 209,000 (+9k)