−10%−5%0+5%−2.2%−2×−1.1%−1×+1.1%+1×+2.2%+2×Retail sales for February 2026: +0.7% on the monthJobless claims for the week to Mar 28, 2026: 202,000 (-8k)Jobs report for March 2026: +171k, unemployment 4.3%Trump announces a two-week ceasefire with IranPCE prices for February 2026: +0.4% on the month, core +0.4%