−10%0+10%+20%−3.9%−1×+3.9%+1×Retail sales for September 2025: +0.2% on the monthJobless claims for the week to Nov 22, 2025: 216,000 (-4k)Jobless claims for the week to Nov 29, 2025: 191,000 (-25k)PCE prices for September 2025: +0.3% on the month, core +0.2%FOMC: 25bp cutJobless claims for the week to Dec 6, 2025: 236,000 (+45k)Retail sales for October 2025: -0.1% on the monthCPI release for November 2025: +0.2% over 2 months, core +0.2%GDP for 2025 Q3: 4.3% a yearJobless claims for the week to Dec 20, 2025: 214,000 (-10k)Jobless claims for the week to Dec 27, 2025: 199,000 (-15k)Jobless claims for the week to Jan 3, 2026: 208,000 (+9k)Jobs report for December 2025: -26k, unemployment 4.4%