priorcase
priorcase

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Record

Fed holds

All 46 of them, and what Bitcoin did after each. Nothing here is averaged: every one stands on its own date, and the spread between them is the answer.

What followed

46 have their following 32 hours closed. 22 rose over the next day and 24 fell. A moment becomes eligible as an answer only once that window has closed, so nothing here is scored on a window still open.

When (UTC)What it wasNext 24hNext 32h
2026-07-29 18:00FOMC statement (July 2026): hold+0.9%+0.5%
2026-06-17 18:00FOMC statement (June 2026): hold−5.3%−4.7%
2026-04-29 18:00FOMC statement (April 2026): hold+0.1%+0.7%
2026-03-18 18:00FOMC statement (March 2026): hold−2.5%−1.7%
2026-01-28 19:00FOMC statement (January 2026): hold−6.8%−8.3%
2025-07-30 18:00FOMC statement (July 2025): hold−0.1%−2.1%
2025-06-18 18:00FOMC statement (June 2025): hold+0.2%+0.4%
2025-05-07 18:00FOMC statement (May 2025): hold+4.9%+7.1%
2025-03-19 18:00FOMC statement (March 2025): hold−0.1%+0.7%
2025-01-29 19:00FOMC statement (January 2025): hold+2.6%+1.4%
2024-07-31 18:00FOMC statement (July 2024): hold−5.2%−3.0%
2024-06-12 18:00FOMC statement (June 2024): hold−4.2%−4.3%
2024-05-01 18:00FOMC statement (May 2024): hold+3.2%+3.4%
2024-03-20 18:00FOMC statement (March 2024): hold+2.5%+1.8%
2024-01-31 19:00FOMC statement (January 2024): hold−1.5%−1.0%
2023-12-13 19:00FOMC statement (December 2023): hold+1.8%+1.8%
2023-11-01 18:00FOMC statement (November 2023): hold+0.8%+0.3%
2023-09-20 18:00FOMC statement (September 2023): hold−2.0%−2.1%
2023-06-14 18:00FOMC statement (June 2023): hold−3.3%−1.9%
2022-01-26 19:00FOMC statement (January 2022): hold−4.6%−2.7%
2021-12-15 19:00FOMC statement (December 2021): hold+0.3%0.0%
2021-11-03 18:00FOMC statement (November 2021): hold−2.6%−1.1%
2021-09-22 18:00FOMC statement (September 2021): hold+3.9%+3.1%
2021-07-28 18:00FOMC statement (July 2021): hold+1.7%+2.9%
2021-06-16 18:00FOMC statement (June 2021): hold−3.8%−3.8%
2021-04-28 18:00FOMC statement (April 2021): hold−3.9%−2.6%
2021-03-17 18:00FOMC statement (March 2021): hold+6.5%+3.3%
2021-01-27 19:00FOMC statement (January 2021): hold+10.0%+14.6%
2020-12-16 19:00FOMC statement (December 2020): hold+12.8%+11.7%
2020-11-05 19:00FOMC statement (November 2020): hold+3.4%+4.2%
2020-09-16 18:00FOMC statement (September 2020): hold−1.6%−1.2%
2020-07-29 18:00FOMC statement (July 2020): hold−1.2%−1.3%
2020-06-10 18:00FOMC statement (June 2020): hold−4.1%−4.6%
2020-04-29 18:00FOMC statement (April 2020): hold−1.8%−0.6%
2020-01-29 19:00FOMC statement (January 2020): hold+1.3%+0.8%
2019-12-11 19:00FOMC statement (December 2019): hold+0.4%+0.3%
2019-06-19 18:00FOMC statement (June 2019): hold+2.5%+6.5%
2019-05-01 18:00FOMC statement (May 2019): hold+0.8%+1.4%
2019-03-20 18:00FOMC statement (March 2019): hold−0.9%−0.5%
2019-01-30 19:00FOMC statement (January 2019): hold−1.3%−1.6%
2018-11-08 19:00FOMC statement (November 2018): hold−1.3%−1.1%
2018-08-01 18:00FOMC statement (August 2018): hold−0.4%−2.6%
2018-05-02 18:00FOMC statement (May 2018): hold+6.3%+5.4%
2018-01-31 19:00FOMC statement (January 2018): hold−10.1%−11.5%
2017-11-01 18:00FOMC statement (November 2017): hold+5.8%+6.0%
2017-09-20 18:00FOMC statement (September 2017): hold−7.8%−8.6%

Ask this yourself

The same record over the API, and ranked by how much each one resembled a moment you name rather than by date:

curl
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer $PRIORCASE_KEY" \
  'https://priorcase.com/v1/after/rate-hold?asset=BTC&alike=now'

Over MCP that is get_topic_outcomes(topic="rate-hold", alike="now"). See them on one axis to lay the paths over each other, Recipes for the two-call loop that starts from the calendar, and the other kindsare here.

Past similarity does not guarantee future outcomes.